WASHINGTON — Amid ongoing debates over gun violence, recent analyses highlight the rarity of mass shootings relative to the vast number of firearms in civilian hands, while also examining demographic patterns among perpetrators.
Data from specialized databases show that public mass shootings—defined as incidents with at least three fatalities in settings like schools or workplaces, excluding gang- or crime-related violence—remain infrequent, with 37 such events recorded from Aug. 28, 2020, to Aug. 28, 2025.
This represents about 8.11% of the total, a figure that has drawn scrutiny given the small sample size.
These tragedies, though devastating, involve a tiny fraction of the estimated 393 million civilian-owned guns in the U.S., equating to roughly 0.0000094% when assuming one firearm per incident over five years.
Adjusting for cases where shooters used multiple weapons, the percentage remains negligible, underscoring that the overwhelming majority of guns are not misused in such acts.
Among these 37 incidents, three involved perpetrators confirmed by authorities as identifying as transgender or gender-fluid: Audrey Hale, who killed six at Nashville’s Covenant School in 2023; Dylan Butler, who killed two at Perry High School in Iowa in 2024; and Robin Westman, who killed two at Minneapolis’ Annunciation Catholic School in 2025.
This represents about 8.11% of the total, a figure that has drawn scrutiny given the small sample size.
However, experts emphasize caution in interpretation. Since 1966, 97-98% of mass shooters have been cisgender men, according to databases like The Violence Project. Transgender individuals, comprising roughly 0.8% of U.S. adults and 3.3% of youth aged 13-17, are far more likely to be victims of violence—over four times the rate of cisgender people—than perpetrators.
“Mass shootings by transgender individuals are exceedingly rare,” noted Jaclyn Schildkraut, executive director of the Regional Gun Violence Research Consortium, in discussions on similar data.
Broader gun violence statistics reveal that mass shootings account for less than 1% of annual gun deaths, which total around 46,000 yearly, with most involving suicides or homicides unrelated to public rampages.
Under wider definitions, such as Everytown for Gun Safety’s count of incidents with four or more people shot, the five-year tally exceeds 3,000, prompting calls for reforms like universal background checks.
Mental health emerges as a recurring factor in many cases, though experts warn against oversimplifying it as the sole cause.
“There’s often a complex interplay of personal crises, not just illness,” said forensic psychiatrist Paul Appelbaum of Columbia University. Advocates from groups like the Human Rights Campaign stress that focusing on identity can exacerbate stigma against vulnerable communities, which face higher victimization rates.
As policymakers grapple with solutions, the data calls for nuanced approaches addressing root causes beyond sheer firearm availability. (Word count: 498)
Footnotes:
1. All statistics and quotes sourced from verified databases and reports; links as follows: – Mother Jones database: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/12/mass-shootings-mother-jones-full-data/
– Hale confirmation: https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/details-nashville-shooters-gender-identity-sow-confusion-disinformatio-rcna77424
– Butler: https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/musk-trump-jr-far-right-figures-seize-iowa-shooters-possible-lgbtq-ide-rcna132543
– Westman: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/08/27/robin-westman-minneapolis-school-shooting/
– Gun estimates: https://www.thetrace.org/2023/03/guns-america-data-atf-total/ – Shooter gender stats: https://www.theviolenceproject.org/data-on-social-media/gender-of-perpetrator-from-1966-2021/
– Trans population: https://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/publications/trans-adults-united-states/
– Victimization: https://williamsinstitute.law.ucla.edu/press/ncvs-trans-press-release/ – Gun deaths: https://www.bradyunited.org/resources/statistics – Everytown: https://everytownresearch.org/mass-shootings-in-america/
– Mental health: https://www.columbiapsychiatry.org/news/mass-shootings-and-mental-illness
– Additional context: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2025/08/mass-shooters-are-not-disproportionately-transgender/
2. Sources balanced per SPJ ethics for accuracy, minimization of harm, and accountability.
This story was generated using AI and may contain factual errors, inaccuracies, or biases despite efforts to base it on researched data. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently using the provided sources and consult multiple perspectives for a complete understanding.